2026-2027 Seasonal Forecast (National Climate Outlook)

The upcoming 2026/27 rainfall season for Zimbabwe is projected to be heavily influenced by a warm (El Niño) phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is expected to persist throughout the forecast period, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently positive and will remain so until the end of January 2027 before transitioning to neutral in February 2027. This specific combination of global climate drivers creates a forecast of significant concern, with an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across the country. The season is anticipated to have a highly erratic start, with a significant portion of the country expected to see no effective onset, and October to December 2026 is projected to be predominantly drier than normal across all provinces. This initial dry phase is expected to persist into January to March 2027, with the southern and western parts of the country expecting normal to below-normal rainfall, while the remaining parts should anticipate below-normal rainfall, alongside warmer-than-normal temperatures throughout the first three months of the season.