POTENTIAL EL NIÑO PHASE LOOMS OVER ZIMBABWE’S 2026/27 RAINY SEASON – URGENT PRELIMINARY WARNING ISSUED

In a bid to effectively implement the Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative, aimed at ensuring universal protection from hazardous hydrometeorological, climatological and related environmental events through life-saving multi-hazard early warning systems, Meteorological Services Department has sounded an urgent preliminary warning regarding an imminent El Niño event. Global forecasting centres indicate an 88% to 94% chance that El Niño will emerge during the 2026/27 rainy season, historically associated with a 65% probability of below-normal rainfall in Zimbabwe, threatening water security, agriculture, and socio-economic stability.

Leveraging advanced Detection, Observation, Monitoring, Analysis, and Forecasting capabilities, the department emphasized that early-season predictions remain subject to the “spring predictability barrier,” with atmospheric and oceanic conditions potentially shifting significantly before the rains commence. Given this uncertainty, Meteorological Services Department has not yet released its official seasonal forecast, cautioning stakeholders against basing critical decisions on preliminary data alone.

Through Warning Dissemination and Communication, the department issued this preliminary alert to inform the public, farmers, and businesses of potential risks. A definitive National Climate Outlook (NACOF) will be published in August 2026 following the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF), integrating enhanced hazard monitoring and multi-hazard early warning systems.

To enhance Preparedness and Response Capabilities, communities were urged to remain vigilant and avoid panic-driven actions, adopting proactive measures such as water conservation and drought-tolerant agricultural practices. The public were advised to rely exclusively on official updates from Meteorological Services Department as the situation evolves, enabling timely early warnings to inform decision-making and action.

The El Niño alert underscores Zimbabwe’s vulnerability to hydrometeorological hazards, reinforcing the critical need for strengthened early warning systems under EW4All.