EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A decrease in the temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region in the Pacific Ocean has initiated a shift in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from a neutral phase to a weak La Niña phase, which is projected to persist until at least February 2026. Furthermore, the status of other key climate drivers is favourable for rainfall, with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) expected to last until at least January 2026 and a positive Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) likely to remain until at least February 2026. The combined influence of these phenomena is to enhance the likelihood for normal to above-average rainfall in Zimbabwe. Consequently, the updated seasonal forecast indicates an increased chance of normal to above-normal rainfall from November 2025 to March 2026, with the important nuance that November alone is likely to see normal conditions leaning towards below-normal.

The season is anticipated to commence between mid-November 2025 and mid-December 2025. Temperature-wise, a warmer-than-normal November is expected to be followed by cooler-than-normal conditions from December 2025 through February 2026. Despite the promising rainfall outlook, the risk of dry spells, violent storms, and flash floods remains, necessitating proactive measures such as water harvesting, irrigation planning, drainage maintenance public health preparedness. The public advised to rely on continuous updates from the Meteorological Services Department for detailed short-term guidance as the department will continuously monitor the climate and weather systems throughout the season.

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